Report warns reforms are fueling rise in violent crime

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(The Center Square) – As Colorado’s prison population has declined over the past few years, the state has seen an increase in violent crime.

This is according to a report released this week by the Common Sense Institute of Colorado, titled “The Reform Paradox.” The report stated that criminal justice reforms have “swung too far in one direction.”

As a part of the effort to lower its prison population, the report found that both incarceration rates and arrests have declined sharply over the past decade or so. As has the state’s rate of recidivism, which is when a convicted criminal reoffends.

Yet this does not necessarily mean crime is decreasing. Instead, the report found a prioritization by lawmakers on leniency has largely led to decreases in recidivism, arrests and prison population.

“Over the past two decades, Colorado has pursued a steady course of criminal justice reform aimed at reducing the footprint of the state’s correctional system,” the report said. “Lawmakers have prioritized leniency: lower sentences for drug offenses, expanded parole and probation opportunities, and restrictions on law enforcement discretion.”

That tension between enforcement and leniency is reflected in the state’s crime trends over the past decade.

From 2014 to 2024, the arrest count declined by nearly 30%. Similarly, Colorado’s recidivism rate fell by 40% between 2008 and 2019, the report found. That is the third-highest decline of any state in the nation.

“In 2008, Colorado had the country's fifth highest recidivism rate,” said DJ Summers, the institute’s director of communications and research operations, at a press conference regarding the report on Tuesday.

Now the state's recidivism has dropped to a more average rate. The decline in arrests have played a significant role in that.

The report found that, from 2016 to 2024, the total number of inmates in Colorado prisons and jails decreased 12%. That decrease was largely due to a significant drop in the prison population in 2020, when many inmates were released early due to concerns about public health amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2020, the prison population has been slowly increasing once again, though still down from the 2010s.

While many of those stats are down over the past few decades, it’s not necessarily good news, according to the report.

It found that from 2014 to 2024, the state’s violent crime rate increased by more than 55%. Looking closer from December 2019 to December 2021, the number of inmates in Colorado prisons fell by more than 20%, while the violent crime rate rose by nearly 25%.

“Arrest counts and violent crime have been shifting at inversely proportional rates, meaning that as arrests decrease, violent crime increases,” the report said.

Summers said Common Sense Institute ran an analysis, which showed there is a “strong correlation” between a decrease in arrests and the prison population and an increase in crime.

On top of that, even with the decline in the recidivism rate, 31% of inmates released by the Colorado Department of Corrections still return to prison within three years. 

The report argued it is time to re-focus priorities away from leniency toward deterrence, accountability and public safety.

“The state’s challenge is no longer to reduce its correctional footprint — it is to restore accountability and deterrence without abandoning compassion,” the report stated. “Colorado must find a middle ground between punitive excess and permissive neglect.”